Orang Ini Memprediksi Pemecahan Rekor Dunia Rubik di Masa Depan, Seberapa Akurat?

ruimin yan dari China dan feliks zemdegs dari Australia
Seperti halnya fungsi eksponensial, ada banyak aplikasi dunia nyata menggunakan fungsi logaritmik: intensitas suara, tingkat pH larutan, hasil reaksi kimia, produksi barang, dan pertumbuhan bayi. Seperti halnya model eksponensial, data yang dimodelkan oleh fungsi logaritmik selalu meningkat atau selalu menurun seiring berjalannya waktu.

Dengan menggunakan regresi logaritmik, Ruimin Yan, seorang speedcuber asal Tiongkok sekaligus mahasiswa di The George Washington University menyajikan prediksi rekor dunia speedcubing di masa mendatang dengan pembanding rekor dunia saat ini (tahun 2020).

Apa itu logarithmic regression?

Regresi logaritmik digunakan untuk memodelkan situasi pertumbuhan atau penurunan berakselerasi cepat pada awalnya dan kemudian melambat seiring berjalannya waktu. Perintah atau rumus yang biasa digunakan ialah "LnReg" pada utilitas grafik untuk menyesuaikan fungsi logaritmik ke satu set titik data.

Prediksi rekor dunia rubik di masa depan

Ruimin memodelkan prediksi di bawah ini dengan berbagai variabel, termasuk catatan rekor terkini, rekor terdahulu, dan sistem perhitungan angka berdasarkan regulasi WCA (single, average of 5, best of 3, dan mean of 3)


3x3x3

2020: single 3.47; average 5.53
2022: single 3.47; average 5.48
2030: single 3.30; average 5.11
2070: single 2.98; average 4.80
∞ / tak terhingga: single 2.51; average 4.44

2x2x2

2020: 0.49 single; average 1.21
2022: 0.49 single; average 1.18
2030: 0.46 single; average 1.03
2070: 0.42 single; average 0.89
∞: 0.39 single; average 0.80

4x4x4

2020: single 17.42; average 21.11
2022: single 17.10; average 20.80
2030: single 15.60; average 18.65
2070: single 14.38; average 16.83
∞: single 12.80; average 14.32

5x5x5

2020: single 34.92; average 39.65
2022: single 34.56; average 39.10
2030: single 29.93; average 34.21
2070: single 26.15; average 29.34
∞: single 24.12; average 28.20

6x6x6

2020: single 1:09.51; average 1:15.90
2022: single 1:07.00; average 1:14.20
2030: single 59.90; average 1:05.38
2070: single 54.36; average 58.42
∞: single 49.17; average 52.15

7x7x7

2020: single 1:40.89; average 1:46.57
2022: single 1:39.89; average 1:45.57
2030: single 1:31.32; average 1:36.30
2070: single 1:22.67; average 1:26.96
∞: single 1:20.20; average 1:23.67

3x3x3 Blindfolded

2020: single 15.50; average 18.18
2022: single 14.64; average 17.87
2030: single 11.21; average 14.10
2070: single 9.19; average 11.34
∞: single 8.04; average 9.99

3x3x3 Fewest Moves

2020: single 16; average 21.00
2022: single 16; average 21.00
2030: single 16; average 20.00
2070: single 14; average 19.00
∞: single 13; average 18.67

3x3x3 One-Handed

2020: single 6.82; average 9.42
2022: single 6.60; average 9.11
2030: single 5.61; average 7.77
2070: single 5.20; average 6.97
∞: single 4.24; average 6.00

Clock

2020: single 3.29; average of 5 4.38
2022: single 3.14; average 4.14
2030: dihapus
2070: dihapus
∞: dihapus

Megaminx

2020: single 27.22; average 30.39
2022: single 26.42; average 29.93
2030: single 23.99; average 26.30
2070: single 20.20; average 22.10
∞: single 19.81; average 21.73

Pyraminx

2020: single 0.91; average 1.86
2022: single 0.91; average 1.70
2030: single 0.78; average 1.53
2070: single 0.67; average 1.29
∞: single 0.55; average 1.11

Skewb

2020: single 0.93; average 2.03
2022: single 0.93; average 2.01
2030: single 0.80; average 1.87
2070: single 0.69; average 1.49
∞: single 0.62; average 1.33

Square-1

2020: single 4.95; average 6.54
2022: single 4.73; average 6.45
2030: single 4.04; average 6.13
2070: single 3.47; average 5.20
∞: single 3.14; average 4.80

4x4x4 Blindfolded

2020: single 1:02.51; average 1:08.76
2022: single 58.42; average 1:03.11
2030: single 53.58; average 56.20
2070: single 48.98; average 52.61
∞: single 42.77; average 46.67

5x5x5 Blindfolded

2020: single 2:21.62; average 2:27.63
2022: single 2:12.72; average 2:21.31
2030: single 1:40.35; average 1:53.63
2070: single 1:35.96; average 1:40.36
∞: single 1:20.32; average 1:25.67

Multiple Blindfolded (Multi-Blind/MBLD)

2020: 59/60 59:46
2022: 63/63 60:00
2030: 71/72 60:00
2070: 98/100 60:00
∞: 123/124 60:00

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